Swing Trade

On the last leg of our USA trip, its been fun and enlightening.
The first thing I noticed here is the amount of oil that gets used! It completely blew me away to see jam packed highways (in every direction).

It would appear that Americans and American business are cutting back on spending, driving down the road you will see houses for sale with an additional sign saying ‘Foreclosure’. Things might be bad, but most people don’t appear to be too concerned. Property sales have increased 2.4%, however homes prices are down 16.8% and some people are picking up real deals.

There is a big initiative towards clean energy See: Re-Power America.org

The ‘short short’ is that life in the US continues regardless and if you’ve got cash available there are some good bargains to be had all over.

I’m still expecting a downturn in the markets as its early days in the recession
Negative ol me

Ok, yes. I’ve missed out on some awesome gains, which irks me some. However, I’ve been really busy with work stuff and organised an event (won’t be organising anymore events soon!!). The thing I like to remember most is that I’ve not lost any money

Headlines like this one today U.K. Treasury Refuses to Release Stress Tests on RBS, Lloyds don’t inspire any confidence for me either.
The Great Depression lasted 11 years, I don’t believe we’re anywhere close to being out of this one. Not to mention many people are still surviving on their savings, when those savings are gone…
Why Did The Great Depression Last So Long?

So I’m waiting for the second wave (mild Tsunami size I’m thinking) to hit and then I’ll get back into the markets.

Since the Dollar is down, we’re heading to the United States, which will be my first visit there. Can’t wait.

Have a profitable day.
Justin

I’m still hanging out on the sidelines, yes there has been a rally and things are looking up but I don’t believe it to be true, so I’m waiting for the markets to drop again and then I’ll hop on board.
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators May Signal Recession Will Ease

Whatever you watch this year, make sure you watch CNBC’s House of Cards
‘An in-depth look at the housing bust that has upended the American dream’
This 2 hour documentary is awesome and a real eye opener of Who, How, What and Why the Subprime happened!!

This is the longest I’ve been out of the markets for the past 7 months or so and I gotta say, I certainly feel different, like there is less suspense when I go to bed and wake up in the morning (more relaxed I suppose?).

Asian markets are looking like they’re going to end in the green.
The BBC just reported that the UK Government has written off 60 Billion Pounds in loans (‘keep alives’) that they have given out to keep the economy afloat!!

In the mean time you might consider asking your wife for her opinion next time you make a trade…
Toxic Testosterone Crunches Need a Female Touch

Have a profitable day

Sitting on the side lines at the moment and loving it!

I managed to sell my Anglo shares last Friday at 18800 and made a small profit (right now they’re sitting at 17700).

Markets appear to be falling at the moment and my personal feeling is that they are going to fall significantly more!

Another opportunity missed!
First pawnbroker ‘in a century’ sets up shop in the City as fat cats hock their diamonds

Verbatim (from Time Magazine)
‘This crisis was caused by the irrational behaviour of white people with blue eyes‘
Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva, Brazilian President, on the recession, saying he didn’t know “any black or indigenous bankers”

Phew! Been a while since I’ve had a chance to do any updates here, too much other work on the go!

I sold my MTN shares a wee bit early, but still made some good money on them and R3000 down on the Anglo shares (I was down about 14K at one point!)

My big mistake is not jumping in on the markets when they were at the bottom (+- 5 days ago). Ain’t hindsight great!

Things are up at the moment on good news (the DOW is down 115 points as I type), however I’m holding out for the next big drop – I’ve got money that says someone is going to pull another big skeleton out of the closet.
Time will tell.

Reminder to self – post compound interest chart

The other thing I’m looking into at the moment is how best to manage my tax with regards to profits made from day trading. If there is anyone out there reading this who can point / advise on this matter, please mail me / comment here.
Thanks,
Justin

A friend sent this to me today:

Dr.. Marc Faber, the investment guru, concluded his monthly bulletin with the following comments (whether he really said it or not I’m not so sure!?)

“The South African government is sending each of us a R9,756 rebate. If we spend that money at PLAZA, the money goes to China . If we spend it on gasoline it goes to the Arabs. If we buy a computer, it will go to India . If we purchase fruits and vegetables it will go to Mexico , Honduras and Guatemala . If we purchase a good car, it will go to Germany . If we purchase useless crap, it will go to Taiwan and none of it will help the South African economy.
The only way to keep that money here at home is to spend it on prostitutes and beer, since these are the only products still produced in SA ..

Check out Dr. Fabers website Gloomboomdoom.com

What Does Dead Cat Bounce Mean?
A temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or bear market, after which the market continues to fall.

Bernanke Spurns Direct U.S. Control of Banks After New Capital Injections

US markets starting going up late yesterday afternoon when Bernanke was giving his speech (and I should have done some buying, but I was still too fearful!)
Markets are up pretty much across the board this morning, my MTN shares are up… no comment on Anglo at this point

US Bank Nationalisation
Whats the big deal? If a local government doesn’t nationalise the bank, most likely a foreign company will end up owning +50% of the bank which is pretty much the same thing!
Yes/No ??

I question how much more worse things are to come? Right now I’m just sitting on the sidelines waiting for what I think might be the new low – the US has had 6 days of downward movement.
Already the JSE appears to be on sale… I’m just not sure what to buy into yet.

Sasol, Standard Bank, Old Mutual for for R5.85!! ?? Some more MTN would have been good today.

Another crappy day on the JSE today, that is depending on how much cash you’ve got in the markets (or got leftover to buy in

There’s no shortage of bad news out there!!
CNN: Markets head to crisis lows as rout continues

Wall Street plunges to 1997 levels
New York – Wall Street shares plunged to their lowest close in nearly 12 years, on investor disappointment with the latest plan to prop up the ailing US banking system.

Chrysler, GM may be forced into bankruptcy

Must have been down about R18,000 on Friday (new personal low… yaaaah!)
Being in the negative used to bother me, now I realise it comes with the territory. Simply I think, if you trade you will experience some negative

Gold went over $1000, US futures are up.

Had a great long weekend, unfortunately I can’t say the same for my shares… both Anglo and MTN took a hammering. Anglo in particular got smacked down, everyone seems to be blaming the Anglo CEO Cynthia Carroll.

I did manged to get cell phone reception on Friday to check Sharenet This page displays quite nicely on most cell phones and is handy if you’re away from you computer.

Now… do I buy more at whats being called ‘wholesale prices’ or play it safe… wait for the US / UK bank takeover news to come out?

Shortly after putting in the Exxaro bid, the market went up and the Exxaro price went to 67.00.

And as you can see below the JSE picked up in the afternoon.

Two useful websites I found recently marketwatch.com & The Wall Street Journal

I think the headline for this article should have read: Guilty as F**k
Federal regulators said on Wednesday they do not know the whereabouts of billionaire Texas banker Allen Stanford, charged with “massive” international financial fraud, federal regulators said Full report on Reuters.com

———————-
Just put in a bid to buy a few Exxaro shares at R64.50… the price is hovering around 65.50, so lets see what happens…
Note to self: The choice has been made, relax, breath and see what happens…

I’m down +-R3000.00 on my Anglo and MTN (each)

They’re saying Alan Stanford might have defrauded investors to the tune of $8 Billion – Not a bad salesman!

Now, I’m a little concerned about the fact that I’m going away tomorrow till Saturday (Wedding Anniversary) – I doubt there is cell phone coverage where I’m going so I’m going to just try and forget about trading while I’m there.

I will however probably put some Sell options on the shares I’ve got (this feature comes standard with Standard Banks trading platform).
Its very simple to to do and perfect if you know you’re going to be away!