Swing Trade

A friend sent this to me today:

Dr.. Marc Faber, the investment guru, concluded his monthly bulletin with the following comments (whether he really said it or not I’m not so sure!?)

“The South African government is sending each of us a R9,756 rebate. If we spend that money at PLAZA, the money goes to China . If we spend it on gasoline it goes to the Arabs. If we buy a computer, it will go to India . If we purchase fruits and vegetables it will go to Mexico , Honduras and Guatemala . If we purchase a good car, it will go to Germany . If we purchase useless crap, it will go to Taiwan and none of it will help the South African economy.
The only way to keep that money here at home is to spend it on prostitutes and beer, since these are the only products still produced in SA ..

Check out Dr. Fabers website Gloomboomdoom.com

What Does Dead Cat Bounce Mean?
A temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or bear market, after which the market continues to fall.

Bernanke Spurns Direct U.S. Control of Banks After New Capital Injections

US markets starting going up late yesterday afternoon when Bernanke was giving his speech (and I should have done some buying, but I was still too fearful!)
Markets are up pretty much across the board this morning, my MTN shares are up… no comment on Anglo at this point

US Bank Nationalisation
Whats the big deal? If a local government doesn’t nationalise the bank, most likely a foreign company will end up owning +50% of the bank which is pretty much the same thing!
Yes/No ??

I question how much more worse things are to come? Right now I’m just sitting on the sidelines waiting for what I think might be the new low – the US has had 6 days of downward movement.
Already the JSE appears to be on sale… I’m just not sure what to buy into yet.

Sasol, Standard Bank, Old Mutual for for R5.85!! ?? Some more MTN would have been good today.

Another crappy day on the JSE today, that is depending on how much cash you’ve got in the markets (or got leftover to buy in

There’s no shortage of bad news out there!!
CNN: Markets head to crisis lows as rout continues

Wall Street plunges to 1997 levels
New York – Wall Street shares plunged to their lowest close in nearly 12 years, on investor disappointment with the latest plan to prop up the ailing US banking system.

Chrysler, GM may be forced into bankruptcy

Must have been down about R18,000 on Friday (new personal low… yaaaah!)
Being in the negative used to bother me, now I realise it comes with the territory. Simply I think, if you trade you will experience some negative

Gold went over $1000, US futures are up.

Had a great long weekend, unfortunately I can’t say the same for my shares… both Anglo and MTN took a hammering. Anglo in particular got smacked down, everyone seems to be blaming the Anglo CEO Cynthia Carroll.

I did manged to get cell phone reception on Friday to check Sharenet This page displays quite nicely on most cell phones and is handy if you’re away from you computer.

Now… do I buy more at whats being called ‘wholesale prices’ or play it safe… wait for the US / UK bank takeover news to come out?

Shortly after putting in the Exxaro bid, the market went up and the Exxaro price went to 67.00.

And as you can see below the JSE picked up in the afternoon.

Two useful websites I found recently marketwatch.com & The Wall Street Journal

I think the headline for this article should have read: Guilty as F**k
Federal regulators said on Wednesday they do not know the whereabouts of billionaire Texas banker Allen Stanford, charged with “massive” international financial fraud, federal regulators said Full report on Reuters.com

———————-
Just put in a bid to buy a few Exxaro shares at R64.50… the price is hovering around 65.50, so lets see what happens…
Note to self: The choice has been made, relax, breath and see what happens…

I’m down +-R3000.00 on my Anglo and MTN (each)

They’re saying Alan Stanford might have defrauded investors to the tune of $8 Billion – Not a bad salesman!

Now, I’m a little concerned about the fact that I’m going away tomorrow till Saturday (Wedding Anniversary) – I doubt there is cell phone coverage where I’m going so I’m going to just try and forget about trading while I’m there.

I will however probably put some Sell options on the shares I’ve got (this feature comes standard with Standard Banks trading platform).
Its very simple to to do and perfect if you know you’re going to be away!

It would appear the JSE is having a sale today…

I’m still down R6500 +change.
There are a number of shares out there that are starting to look very attractive… question is how much lower will things go!?

Gold is currently sitting lower at $964.70 and I think its going to climb towards $1500.00 in the next couple of months, so next time I spot a deal on gold shares I think I’m going to pick some up.

Read: MTN delays BEE deal

Good Morning
Today I’m starting the day at -R4000.00. I’m down R1300.00 on Anglo and R2600.00 on MTN. The most I’ve been down is R10000,00 so I’m not particularly hassled at the moment.

Yes, it sucks to be out of money. But after a few times you get used it. The thing to do is relax, be patient and potentially buy more shares (since they’re down

Well it seems like everyone ignored the President Obama’s 747 Billion (£553 billion) cash injection – (I’m still can’t quite grasp how much money that is). I’m of the opinion they should just throw out the poorly performing car manufacturers with the rest of the trash. Tell me ‘why oh why’ do we need (that many) more cars!!

On the up side Oil is $34.74

In what is being hailed as a victory for the new administration, the 787 billion dollar plan will see half-a-trillion dollars pumped into spending projects in a bid to create or save 3.5 million jobs.
Click here to read the full report

Starbucks coffee: available at a supermarket near you!
Checkout Starbucks has high hopes for its instant coffee on Marketwatch.com

Madoff might have company!
58-year-old billionaire, R. Allen Stanford assured clients last week that U.S. investigators were conducting “routine examinations” of his Texas investment advisory firm.
now accused of running a “massive, ongoing fraud,”. He spent his final weeks at the firm struggling to soothe clients while disregarding subpoenas that sought to account for almost $8 billion of their money.
Click here to read the full story on Bloomberg

Who/what is still lurking in the economic closet!!!

“Looking to get a leg up”
Very little of my analysis is ‘technical’ but I do enjoy watching technical traders making assumptions on the markets based on what the graphs say.

Check out the Wiki on Technical Trading
History certainly does repeat itself and trends are always found. I’ve heard of software that trades shares automatically (although I’m sure they’ve been shutdown due to the exceptional times we’re in.

Newsflash:
Vodacom will be listing on the JSE – I’m quite happy about this as I’ve worked at Vodacom before (doing IT stuff) and like the company.
Read more –> Vodacom, Vodafone tie up

Markets are open and down –
::: Have a profitable day

Comment for the day: When watching market commentators – trust the guys who genuinely appear to be enjoying themselves.

Someone who I particularly enjoy watching is Peter Major who comments on CNBC Africa’s Open Exchange
He is a fund manager and analyst for Cadiz FSG

Read the SAFM Market Update with Peter Major –
–> Company news and commentary: Peter Major – Cadiz Corporate Solutions

My first ever purchase on the JSE was Harmony – my wife bought Gold Fields. This was around the time when there was talk of Israel going into Syria. Gold rallied and we made some money. Our first real trade on the JSE, it was awesome

I just caught the tail end of an interview with a technical trader who reckons that ‘technically’ Gold could up to 1300 around March/April. This was due to a ‘Head and shoulders’ indication on the graph.
As you might have figured already, I’m of the opinion that it’s going to get worse before it gets better and I often find myself wondering if gold is not a good buy? The thing that bothers me is that I would have to hold it for about a month!

The following is from an article on Bloomberg.com
Still, gold may gain for a second straight week as the banking crisis and recession deepen, boosting the metal’s appeal as a store of value. Twenty-six of 32 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Tokyo to Chicago last week advised buying gold. The futures rose 3.1 percent last week.

Sweet! BOUGHT 300 AGL @ 18200 and I’m up on them all ready. Sasol have gone up to 26700… but oh well
I’m still holding my MTN shares (and I’m down on them). Still thinking if I should buy some Gold Fields or Harmony, as below I’m not very confident about the global economy.
One hour till JSE closes